How to Build an Event Timeline
Learn a practical timeline method for mapping event updates, source timestamps, criteria windows, and market-implied probability movement.
Context only. Not betting advice, financial advice, legal advice, or investment advice.
Why timelines improve event intelligence
Timelines align source updates with movement windows and criteria cutoffs, making interpretation more traceable.
They reduce hindsight bias by preserving sequence and timing context.
Core timeline fields to capture
A useful timeline captures timestamped events, source provenance, evidence quality, and potential relevance to market interpretation.
Standard fields make cross-event comparisons easier.
- Timestamp and timezone
- Source and provenance
- Event summary
- Criteria relevance note
- Uncertainty flag status
Aligning timeline entries with movement windows
Compare timeline entries against movement periods to evaluate which updates may be associated with repricing.
Association should be framed as context, not definitive causation.
Maintaining timeline quality over time
Add updates continuously and note revisions when sources are corrected or superseded.
Versioned timeline entries preserve methodological clarity.
Context-only methodology note
Event timelines support neutral analysis and source-backed interpretation workflows.
Context only. Not betting advice, financial advice, legal advice, or investment advice.
Related resources
Why Market Probabilities Move
Connect timeline methods to movement interpretation.
How to Research a Polymarket Market Before Interpreting Odds
Apply timeline methods in Polymarket workflows.
How to Research a Kalshi Market
Apply timeline methods in Kalshi workflows.
Prediction Market Research
Use timeline context in broader research operations.
Frequently asked questions
Should every source update be added to the timeline?
Add material updates and notable revisions, especially those affecting criteria interpretation or movement context.
Can timeline analysis prove causation?
No. Timelines support contextual association and transparent evidence tracking.
Timeline methodology
Build event timelines that keep source context and uncertainty visible
Use OddsAware to map movement windows, source timestamps, criteria context, and uncertainty flags in one research workflow.
Early access is currently available. Context only - not betting advice.